Economia

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http://repositorio.ufes.br/handle/10/17549

Programa de Pós-Graduação em Economia

Centro: CCJE
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Agora exibindo 1 - 20 de 36

A crise financeira de 2008 e seus impactos na economia brasileira: uma análise sob a perspectiva de Minsky
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2013-08-30) Pedra, Alysson Correia; Arthmar, Rogério; Salles, Alexandre Ottoni Teatini; Morandi, Angela Maria
Having in sight the world's financial collapse of 2008, this dissertation takes up the economic theory proposed by Hyman P. Minsky aiming to clarify the circumstances that led to so deep financial crisis. Minsky’s analytical framework was built on the Financial Instability Hypothesis, which identifies in the internal dynamics of the capitalistic system as the main cause of its financial upswings and downturns. This process, characterized by the progressive indebtedness of economic agents, builds itself in a cycle of predefined stages that often reach the apex of a financial crisis or a systemic collapse, best known in the literature, respectively, as “Minsky Moment” and “Minsky Collapse”. Minsky's overall approach to the financial modus operandi of modern economies was complemented by the more recent contributions of Gary A. Dymski and Alessandro Vercelli, who explored the idea of a Miskian cycle. By reviewing these theories in some detail, it is possible to see how the process of the deregulation and financial weakness of the United States in the 1980s and 1990s paved the way to the subprime crisis and, later, of the 2008 financial collapse. Similarly, is possible to observe that Minsky’s theory is also applicable to the Brazilian financial crisis in 2008. The financial fragility that began to develop in Brazil some years prior to the crisis, mainly in the commodities export sector, created the conditions for the “Brazilian Minsky’s moment”, demonstrating that despite some limitations of Minsky's analysis, such as the assumption of a closed economy, his theory offers important insights not only into the operation of financial markets in fully advanced economies but also in the emerging ones as well.
A dinâmica do crescimento e distribuição : uma revisão sobre os modelos heterodoxos de crescimento
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2016-05-11) Carvalho, Bruno Henrique Picon de; Grassi, Robson Antonio; Arthmar, Rogério; Freitas, Fábio Neves Perácio de
This study aimed to carry out a theoretical review of the origin and evolution of heterodox growth models, focusing on the relationship between the distribution and growth, comparing the different frameworks, their hypotheses and onclusions, always showing the interrelationships and theoretical clashes between these schools. Modern growth theory originated from the independent contributions of Harrod and Domar, who wished to build a Keynesian model for the long term. The main conclusion of these authors is that there is only one equilibrium growth rate and, once this system is distanced, by a long depression would (if distance itself down) or inflation (if grow above). This result was criticized by the school of Cambridge, who developed a solution through flexible savings function. Since the capitalists save more workers, any redistribution to profits raise the savings rate, and decrease with the increase of wages. Through this mechanism, stability can be obtained, and there was an inverse relationship between distribution and growth. At the same time, Kalecki developed his theory of effective demand, the standing in an environment characterized by the presence of oligopolies and price formed via mark-up. Moreover, the author concludes that there is a direct relationship between growth and accumulation, because the salary increase does not lead to falling profits. In turn, Josef Steindl kaleckiano used the framework to build an endogenous explanation for the tendency of mature capitalism to stagnation in contrast to the dominant explanation related to the reduction of technological innovations. According to the author, the presence of oligopoly the only way the firm reacting a negative impact on the capital accumulation is by reducing the use of the plant. However, the resulting idleness makes the resolute entrepreneurs to pursue new investment, stagnating the economy. As theorists of Keynesian growth saw the need to abandon the hypothesis of full employment in this school of Cambridge, the same sought inspiration from Kalecki and Steindl, giving rise to neo-Kaleckian models. In these, as in Steindl, there is a direct relationship between distribution and growth, so that the concentration of income and increased mark-up would induce a stagnation process. The neo-Kaleckian received two different types of criticism, the first essentially linked to the neo-Ricardian approach, consisting of the refusal of this instability in the long neo-kaleckiano term, which would not be compatible with a long-term equilibrium position and the second, related to the existence of a positive relationship between distribution and growth, analysis of which highlights the Bhaduri and Marglin (1990), which was fully digested. According to these authors, the increase in real wages has two distinct effects, increased consumption and reduced investment. If the first effect is greater than the second, there will be an incentive on demand, and thus will be in the wage-led regime. In turn, if the reduction of the investment is more pronounced, wage improvement will reduce the total demand, characterizing the profit-led regime. Therefore, the relationship between distribution and growth depend on how business decision reacts to changes in the rate of profit and therefore cannot be defined a priori. Thus, it was concluded that the evolution of heterodox growth models did not occur in a linear and harmonic way, with a paradigm replacing the other, but through a complex process as many arguments have been developed in parallel or returning later on new guise.
A formação da pequena propriedade agrícola no Espírito Santo : estudo do distrito de Paraju
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2010-05-19) Oliveira, Jackson Rodrigues de; Campos Junior, Carlos Teixeira de; Siqueira, Maria da Penha Smarzaro; Arthmar, Rogério
The intention of this work is to study the formation of small farms in the Espírito Santo state, making a case study in Paraju city that is district of Domingos Martins, the Espirito Santo and of the states that Brazil composes. In this way, as delimited research problem the following question: How happened the creation of small farms in the district Paraju in Domingos Martins? For to answer this question, defying general objective that is to analyze how the formation of small farms in the mountainous region of the Municipality of Domingos Martins, in particular the district of Paraju. Among the topics covered in the present work are: to show the formation of small farm, to show how it the municipality of Domingos Martins, to do a study of farms that are in the district paraju. To prove that coffee is on the main agricultural activity of paraju present in almost all district and is responsible for generating the most revenue and employment in rural areas of small farms. In the methodological became a literature search that allowed setting benchmarks for the implementation of fieldwork and analysis of the results of this research.
A grande depressão e a política fiscal anticíclica na teoria Keynesiana
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2017-06-05) Silveira, Thiago Salles da; Arthmar, Rogério; Salles, Alexandre Ottoni Teatini; Andrada, Alexandre Flávio Silva
The present research aims to examine the fiscal policy through investment and social spending as a countercyclical instrument of regulation of aggregate demand in order to maintain an economy in the level of activity near full employment. For that, the economic scenario of the Great Depression and its main interpretations are presented. An analysis of this period of recess is pertinent, for that was the scenario of high unemployment, fall of production and price deflation wherein John Maynard Keynes developed in 1936 his main work, The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, henceforth General Theory, presenting the principle of effective demand in opposition to the theoretical framework of the orthodox economy, that is, Say's Law. Keynes proposes that as cyclical fluctuations occur due to a lack in effective demand caused by a fall in the marginal efficiency of capital and, thus, legitimizes the State intervention in the economy through an active fiscal policy, aided by the multiplier, to stabilize the levels of income and employment.
A trajetória do Banco de Desenvolvimento do Espírito Santo (BANDES) no período pós Plano Real
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2009-06-19) Paixão, Ricardo Silveira da; Salles, Alexandre Ottoni Teatini; Arthmar, Rogério; Ferrari, Marcos Adolfo
Análise comparativa dos modelos CAPM tradicional e condicional : um estudo de caso do clube de investimento AIVALE
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2009-06-17) Barbosa, Claudio Alan de Melo; Sampaio, Waldemar Sobral; Brasil, Gutemberg Hespanha; Arthmar, Rogério; Sampaio, Waldemar Sobral
The Model for Pricing of Financial Assets CAPM compares or correlates the returns of individual action with the returns of the market by risk index called Beta. The market is a pattern or common denominator to obtain what is known as risk not diverse, also called of systemic risk. So that was a comparative study between two types of pricing of assets, traditional CAPM and conditional CAPM, whereas the latter uses the GARCH-M model, able to incorporate the conditional variance in its estimation. The Brazilian financial market over the past years, was the scene of a major growth and consolidation of Brazil at the national and international community. Thus, the BOVESPA, in an attempt to make the practice of investing in more stock to reach the population regulated investment clubs, allowing the entry of small investors, but these, together in clubs, eventually become investors in great potential, and investment club AIVALE, one of which was soon made to create a large gain in its assets. It was possible to study the behavior of its variance, and determine the best model based on the Beta.
Análise espacial da criminalidade no Espírito Santo e em Vitória
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2010-06-04) Pereira, André Luiz Greve; Sachsida, Adolfo; Grassi, Robson Antonio; Arthmar, Rogério
This dissertation investigates the determinants of crime in cities in the state of Espírito Santo and in the districts of its capital, Vitória. This study is based in the economic literature that seeks to identify the marginal impact of economic, social and demographic variables, as well as the marginal impact of apparently victimless crimes (drugs and guns crimes) on crimes with identifiable victims (homicide, offence against the person and crimes against property). The data used in this paper were criminal occurrences recorded by the Espírito Santo Department of Public Safety and Social Defense (SESP-ES), including criminals residences sorted at neighborhood level. This variable has no precedents in Brazilian economic studies. The results of the study emphasize the importance of the spillover effect in crime through two different channels: the influence of apparently victimless crimes in crimes against property and offences against the person, which had a greater explanatory power than social, economic and demographic variables; and a positive spatial correlation of crimes between cities. The public security policies are discussed and analyzed based on these results and the references consulted
Análise evolucionária das abordagens desenvolvimentistas de Gunnar Myrdal e Ha-Joon Chang
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2017-07-03) Ferreira, Alana Carvalho; Salles, Alexandre Ottoni Teatini; Arthmar, Rogério; Aldabalde, Taiguara Villela
This research focused on the theoretical contributions of the Evolutionary Institutional Economy, more specifically on the subsidies of Thorstein Veblen and Geoffrey Hodgson, in order to infer an evolutionary methodology of analysis. Next, we sought to understand the influence of the inferred methodology on selected economic development theories. The elected authors were the institutional economists Gunnar Myrdal and Hay-Joon Chang, whose theories were explored in search of convergences and divergences from inferred evolutionary methodology. The main results pointed to important theoretical convergences in both authors. The centrality and the form of the process of evolution of the analyzed phenomena and the importance of the institutions, in general, is emphasized. Myrdal stood out for his analysis of rooted habits and for his sophistication of the concept of circular causation. Chang stood out for his contribution to the understanding of institutional change.
Aplicação da teoria de valores extremos em estratégias 'long-short'
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2010-12-17) Monte-mor, Danilo Soares; Arthmar, Rogério; Sanfins, Marco Aurélio dos Santos; Brasil, Gutemberg Hespanha
Increasingly has appeared on the market of investment Absolute Return Funds (Hedge Funds), which have the main objective to improve their performance through arbitrage strategies, as long-short strategies. It is the disproportionate evolution and even antagonistic of active prices that allows the players to structure strategies to generate additional returns, higher than the opportunity costs and independent of the movement of the market. In this work we used Extreme Value Theory (EVT), an important segment of probability, to model the series of direct relationship between prices of two pairs of assets. The quantiles obtained from such modeling and the quantile provided by normal were superimposed on data for periods subsequent to the period analyzed. From the comparison of such data we created a new quantitative long-short arbitrage strategy, called GEV Long-Short Strategy
Arranjos produtivos locais e custos de transação : um estudo comparativo dos arranjos capixabas de vestuário (Colatina) e rochas ornamentais (Cachoeiro de Itapemirim)
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2007-09-19) Silva Júnior, Sérgio Manhans da; Grassi, Robson Antonio; Arthmar, Rogério; Pondé, João Luiz Simas Pereira de Souza
It presents the main concepts on clusters, with emphasis in the term of local productive arrangements , arguing in critical way the absence of elements that make possible one better agreement of the relations Inter-firms. It is used in the attempt to improve this concept, the theory of transaction costs, with emphasis on the question of the specific assets, making correlation it enters the degree of developments of local productive arrangements and the presence of these assets. In this intention, it is used as case study, for verification of this hypothesis, two productive arrangements from the state of Espirito Santo, that are analyzed in a comparative form, in order to verify the impact of different levels of specific assets on the degree of maturity of the arrangement. Finally, it is noticed a direct relation among those elements, wich makes that the presence of greaters levels of assets has important impact on the competitive advantage of the arrangements
As expectativas nos autores pré-keynesianos modernos do mainstrain e na teoria geral
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2016-06-08) Barros, Leonel Leite; Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete; Arthmar, Rogério; Almeida, José Felipe Araújo de
The theme of expectations in economic sciences is of fundamental importance, but observing, for instance, a Manual of History of Economic Thought has been the idea that the issue only arose from the publication of the General Theory of Employment, Interest and Currency, of the John Maynard Keynes in 1936. The intention of this work is to investigate whether the works of the modern pre-keynesian authors of the mainstream were or not remarks about the expectations and, if so, make your presentation to integrated models of the authors, as well as the topic of discussion in the General Theory, which will enable the understanding of why this work is so relevant in relation to expectations. Thus, to achieve this purpose, it will do a study on the marginalist economists and the School of Cambridge until the advent of General Theory. For this, the first chapter will discuss the expectations models of marginalists authors William Stanley Jevons, Carl Menger, and Léon Walras. The objectives of this chapter shall be: a) to present the discussion of expectations for the marginalist authors; and, b) to indicate the possible cause for the History of Economic Thought have ignored this discussion. In the second and third chapter will discuss the expectations at Cambridge School, the authors to be discussed will be Alfred Marshall, Arthur Cecil Pigou, Dennis Holme Robertson and John Maynard Keynes. The first two will be discussed in the second chapter and the last two in the third. The purpose of the two chapters will be: a) to present the expectations in view of the authors of the Cambridge School; b) to suggest a possible reason for the remarks of Marshall, Pigou and Robertson on the expectations have attracted a lesser extent the attention of the History of Economic Thought regarding the same theme in the General Theory.
Brasil, 1979-1989 : uma década perdida?
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2003-07-11) Rostoldo, Jadir Peçanha; Soares, Geraldo Antonio; Arthmar, Rogério; Siqueira, Maria da Penha Smarzaro
Analyses the transformations of the Brazilian Society, from 1979 to 1989, making reflections that take to a wider comprehension of the country problems. The analysis was done through a multi-disciplinary view, questioning the expression Lost Decade , which the period is usually connected to. Recovers the economic politics from 1955 to 1989. Describes the cultural expressions, social movements and syndicalist movement of the 1980 s, showing their transforming action. Runs over about the redemocratization process, since the politic amnesty until the direct elections for President. Brings the social indicators of the period, including the Human Development Index (HDI) and its relation to the concept of human development. The conclusions show that even there was economic recession, the society had positive achievements in many aspects and the period can be considered as a period of changes and transformations, not lost.
Concentração, operacionalização e rentabilidade bancária no Brasil pós-real
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2016-12-12) Barbosa, Flávia Félix; Arthmar, Rogério; Salles, Alexandre Ottoni Teatini; Morandi, Angela Maria
This dissertation is focused on the changes in concentration in operation and bank profitability in Brazil in the post-Real Plan period, specifically between 1994 and 2014. Therefore, discusses the importance of the Real Plan, financial liberalization and recent international financial crisis in large transformations which passed the Brazilian sector. The research guided in a theoretical and empirical approach, the light of post-Keynesian framework to demonstrate the evolution of concentration and operational structure, both on the side of active operations as the side of lending operations. The analysis and selected indicators shows that the banking sector lifted unprecedented concentration levels, while maintaining a net operating profile and highly profitable, despite the reduction of banking sector liquidity and profitability of private banks in the post-crisis period. This was possible mainly because of the restructuring proposed by the government and the Central Bank in the face of the difficulties of most of the banks with the introduction of the Real Plan in 1994 and after the international crisis started in 2007, and extremely dynamic behavior of the big banks.
Condicionantes das exportações de café do Espírito Santo : aplicação da abordagem geral para específico
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2008-05-05) Monte, Edson Zambon; Brasil, Gutemberg Hespanha; Arthmar, Rogério; Samohyl, Robert Wayne
The objective of this dissertation is to estimate the equation of exportation that explains the coffee international trade of the Espirito Santo, with intention to identifying main determinants of the exporting performance of this commodity. The general for specific approach, developed for the London School of Economics (LSE), is used as methodological instrument. In the estimate of the equation of coffee exportation two econometrical models were used: one in the linear form and another one in the double-logarithmic form (or log-log). For choice of the best functional form (better predictive performance) were used, beyond diagnostic tests, the following measured of performance: Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) and the Theil inequality coefficient (Theil's U). One evidenced that the functional form that better was adjusted to the established criteria was the linear one. In according with the general for specific approach, the excellent variable for the exportations of coffee of the Espirito Santo were the tax of real exchange, the price of the conilon coffee, the domestic price, the production of coffee of the Espirito Santo, the production of worldwide coffee and the stock of coffee of Brazil. The variable most important if the determination of the coffee exportations was the exchange tax.
Consumo e taxação de bens conspícuos: análise teórica e um estudo empírico sobre as importações brasileiras de 2011 A 2020
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2023-03-30) Camatta, Rafael Barbieri; Salles, Alexandre Ottoni Teatini; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9074-2531; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1107306178088215; https://orcid.org/0000000337817658; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8311959087874563; Pessali, Huáscar Fialho; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5770-4653; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9985212780009622; Lopes, Herton Castiglioni; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3539-1729; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8849890515327689; Arthmar, Rogério; https://orcid.org/0000000170852645; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3900351075202052; Conceição, Octavio Augusto Camargo
The analysis of the theoretical economic literature about conspicuous consumption show that this behavior not only has deep roots on human evolution but it is also ubiquitous through all social classes. Nonetheless, the literature shows that the habit of demonstrative consumption can result in several economic and social problems, specially to low-income agents and underdeveloped countries. Additionally, authors from the Classical School to Positional Economics argue that progressive taxation on this type of consumption can diminish the effects of demonstrative and emulative behavior. Despite the various theoretical incursions on this issue over the past two and a half centuries, it appears that the topic has not been widely addressed empirically in Economic Science. The present research was not able to find any economic studies that investigate this phenomenon from the point of view of the determinants of Brazilian’s demand for luxury goods. Likewise, it was not possible to find academic research on how conspicuous goods are taxed in Brazil. Thus, from a broad theoretical research on the consumption and taxation of conspicuous goods in Economic Science, this dissertation seeks: (i) to build a time series in order to measure the variation in Brazilian’s conspicuous consumption, specifically with regard to luxury goods imports for the years 2011 to 2020; (ii) investigate what were the determinants of this importation; and, finally, (iii) to analyze the Brazilian federal tax structure regarding taxes and contributions levied on demonstrative goods.
Convergências teóricas entre Veblen e Keynes
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2016-06-22) Corradi, Lígia Lóss; Salles, Alexandre Ottoni Teatini; https://orcid.org/0000000267907868; Arthmar, Rogério; Dalto, Fabiano Abranches Silva
This research aims to discuss the convergence and divergence issues between the economic theories of Thorstein Bunde Veblen and John Maynard Keynes. To meet these objectives, it presents firstly, the core principals of Veblen’s theoretical underpinnings (based on his selected pieces), such as: instincts, habits, and institutions that shape human behavior. According to the author, the evolution of these elements is important to the understanding of the structure and the functioning of the current capitalist system. After that, the dissertation examines the Keynesian thought (developed after his General Theory, 1936) about the effective demand, the role of long-term expectations to determining employment levels and income, the economic cycles, and his perspective on the future of the capitalist system. The research found similarities in the views of both authors about the components of aggregate demand, about the determination of employment and income, the use of social conventions in decision-making agents, and the economic cycle. Nevertheless, the opinion of the authors on the future of capitalism is divergent.
Desenvolvimento sustentável e energias renováveis : um estudo econômico sobre o potencial de uso do MDL para o desenvolvimento da energia eólica no Espírito Santo
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2010-07-09) Bolsanello, Renato Ximenes; Dalcomuni, Sonia Maria; Arthmar, Rogério; Oliveira, José Teófilo
The paper analyzes if the Development of Wind Energy in the State of Espírito Santo can be classified as a project that might fit the definitions of Clean Development Mechanism under the Kyoto Protocol, aimed at attracting foreign investment to produce electricity without degrading the environment, as well as generate financial returns to market for Certified Emission Reductions. The growth and development of wind energy presents itself as an important and promising technology to generate additional power clean carbon emissions. In this scenario of global warming, the carbon market can be a way of developing countries through projects of Clean Development Mechanisms (CDM) pursue their sustainable development. This paper presents the evolution of wind energy over time, their use in generating electricity, its Wind Atlas and its perspectives. Considering the wind potential in the state and the new rules of the electricity sector, as well as programs to encourage clean energy sources, a study was developed to prove the possibility of using the Clean Development Mechanism for its deployment in Espírito Santo.
Disparidades e persistência do desemprego regional no Brasil
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2012-06-14) Ferrari, Tatiana Kolodin; Brasil, Gutemberg Hespanha; Pereira, Pedro Luiz Valls; Arthmar, Rogério
This study aimed to analyze the behavior of regional unemployment rates in Brazil. In particular, it attempted to identify the existence of a process of convergence and if it is characterized as conditional or unconditional. The main innovation is to extending this type of analysis for the 27 Federal Units. Using panel unit-root tests, we can strongly reject the unit-root hypothesis, suggesting that shocks to regional unemployment rates have transitory effects and the convergence is characterized as conditional, which explains the existence of stable differences among regional unemployment rates. The evidences align with the equilibrium approach or compensatory theory, which explains the phenomenon as an individual preference for certain areas.
Energia e sustentabilidade do desenvolvimento : biocombustíveis como alternativa energética sustentável
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2009-06-05) Trazzi, Igor Kfuri; Dalcomuni, Sonia Maria; Arthmar, Rogério; Campos, Adriana Fiorotti
Evidência sobre o conteúdo informacional da estrutura a termo da taxa de juros no Brasil : relação entre a ETTJ e a dinâmica econômica
(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2011-05-06) Santos, Daiane Rodrigues dos; Sanfins, Marco Aurélio dos Santos; Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete; Arthmar, Rogério
The work aims at identifying the relationship between the spread, difference of the long term interest rate in relation to the short term interest rate, and the economic dynamic. Specifically, it studies how the spread has impacted on the gross domestic product real growth rate, phenomenon pointed out by authors such as Harvey (1988), Sims (1972), Bernard & Gerlach (1996) and Estrella (2004), among others. It was verified, in the model VAR (6), that the Brazilian industrial production is weakly influenced by the spread. However, it was observed that the last one is strongly determined through the industrial production. This result is not found in the adopted theoretic approach. Additionally, it was verified that the spread is highly determined from the IPCA, which is, in its turn, strongly influenced through the spread, confirming the relations showed in Sims (1972), Shousha (2006), Nielsen (2006), among others. In the statistics of the dynamic model, VAR (6), it also presented an expressive effect from the industrial production on the IPCA, which, by contrast, is not significantly determining the industrial activity in the sample period.

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