Incerteza político-econômica, agressividade tributária e o efeito moderador do mercado de crédito nas empresas de capital aberto listadas na [B]³
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Data
2023-08-21
Autores
Almeida, Karina Borges de
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
This study aims to analyze the behavior of Brazilian public non-financial companies listed on [B]³ regarding tax aggressiveness in conditions of political-economic uncertainty and under the influence of the credit market. As measures of political-economic uncertainty, two indices are used at the Brazilian level: the Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and the Economic Uncertainty Indicator (IIE-BR). To measure tax aggressiveness, the analyzes used are the Effective Tax Rate (ETR), the Book-Tax Differences (BTD) and the Tax Burden on Added Value (CTRIB-DVA). As alternative proxies to provide robustness to the study, variations of the BTD (Permanent BTD) and the ETR (Differential ETR) are used. For the credit market, the metric used will be the “Quarterly Survey of Credit Conditions in Brazil” indicator, available in the BACEN Time Series Management System. This study fills a gap in the national literature by analyzing the supply of credit in a scenario of political-economic uncertainty. The sample is made up of 4,749 observations between the period 2011-2022. The analysis consists of descriptive, improved statistics and regressions using the ordinary least squares method. The results of the regressions indicate, in general, that the companies that make up the sample are more tax aggressive when there is an increase in political-economic uncertainty and that the supply of credit is moderate in this relationship. These comments are relevant for investors to get to know the companies they are investing in, for inspectors and government agents to understand the behavior regarding the tax aggressiveness of companies in the face of increased political-economic uncertainty and its implications in the credit market and thus better define how public policy.
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Palavras-chave
Planejamento tributário
Agressividade fiscal
Incerteza político-econômica
Mercado de crédito