Mestrado em Energia

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http://repositorio.ufes.br/handle/10/17605

Nível: Mestrado Acadêmico
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Navegando Mestrado em Energia por Autor "Araujo, Fernando Oliveira de"

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    Diversificação da matriz energética baseada em recursos renováveis : impactos sobre a segurança elétrica brasileira
    (Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2018-02-28) Campos, Filipe Rodrigues Nogueira; Chaves, Gisele de Lorena Diniz; Celeste, Wanderley Cardoso; Ribeiro, Daniel da Cunha; Araujo, Fernando Oliveira de
    The security of the electric power supply is one of the preponderant factors of analysis of the organizational policies. Every year the world energy consumption has been showing patterns of systematic growth, thus requiring an increasing capacity of production and distribution of electricity. The Brazilian scenario is consistent with this growth, but it tends to face some barriers. Based on the work of Aslani, Helo and Naaranoja (2014), the present study aims to carry out an analysis of the safety and diversity impact of the implementation of policies to encourage the expansion of the participation of renewable sources in the national energy matrix. Based on a cause and effect diagram, a Systems Dynamics model is used to evaluate Brazilian scenarios of policies to expand renewable installed capacity and reduce the use of thermoelectric plants. Thirty-two simulation scenarios were established in three axes of analysis. The scenarios take into account the speed of implementation of the policies, the achievement of the established goals and the participation of thermoelectric plants in electricity generation over a ten-year horizon, between 2017 and 2026. The analysis shows that the expansion of the system's capacities increases diversity and keep the system safe by the end of the next decade, albeit at a lower level. The thermoelectric plants are fundamental for this maintenance, since their reduction drastically increases the risk of deficit. The proposed model serves as a basis for other scenarios related to renewable energy policies, which can be either expanded to include cost and risk approaches or implemented under other analytical parameters.