Metodologia para determinar a potência firme das unidades de geração distribuída e sua aplicação no processo de previsão de demanda das redes de distribuição de energia elétrica
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Data
2015-12-15
Autores
Fiorotti, Rodrigo
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
The expansion planning of distribution networks aims to define a plain of works to suit the expected increase in demand of electricity distribution networks complying with the minimum requirements of power quality with a minimal global cost. To determine future demand feeders, it is necessary apply a methodology of load forecasting, however, the traditional methods of load forecasting do not have satisfactory precision in networks that have distributed generation units - especially when there are wind generators and photovoltaic panels. Such fact occurs as a consequence of the volatility and intermittency of wind speed and solar irradiation profiles. The main contribution of this dissertation is propose a methodology to determine the firm capacity of distributed generation units, which has not yet found in the specialized literature. The methodology applies the Monte Carlo simulation to model the power generated from wind and photovoltaic sources, preserving their stochastic nature and, from their probabilistic results, the firm capacity is defined by the application of risk analysis tool Value at Risk. The proposed methodology has as its objective to be inserted in the traditional load forecasting procedures, making them able to deal with the stochastic nature of distributed generation units. Finally, the methodology was applied using real data of feeders, wind speed and solar irradiation time series of the same study area, showing the influence of distributed generation units in the variation of the annual peak demand of feeders and in the plain of works of distribution network operators.
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Technical planning , Load forecasting , Distributed generation , Previsão de carga (Energia elétrica) , Electricity distribution networks , Potência firme (Energia elétrica)