Litigiosidade tributária e o comportamento dos analistas : impactos no otimismo, na acurácia e nas recomendações de investimentos
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Data
2025-06-11
Autores
Araújo, Maurílio Arruda de
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
This study aimed to investigate whether the uncertainties arising from tax litigation alter the expectations of financial analysts, based on an average sample of 192 Brazilian publicly traded companies – listed on B3, in the period from 2009 to 2023. Employing panel data models with fixed and random effects and Pooled OLS, corroborated by the Hausman, Chow and Breusch-Pagan tests and analyzing data from renowned sources, such as Comdinheiro, Economatica and Refinitiv Thomson Reuters Eikon, this study identifies a significant and non-negligible impact of tax litigation on errors, accuracy and analysts' recommendations regarding earnings forecasting. In addition, the survey identified that the service sector slightly presents the highest tax litigation among the economic sectors, while the trade sector presented the lowest; Companies that reported large losses, on the other hand, tend to have greater tax litigation. It can be inferred from the results that the uncertainty generated by tax litigation is associated with a reduction in the optimistic bias of analysts, leading to pessimism/conservatism due to the perception of risk due to uncertainties and ambiguities in the disclosures of tax contingencies – presenting a significant increase in accuracy and, consequently, a decrease in forecast error. In addition, it was identified that tax litigation influences the recommendations for the optimistic aspect, that is, analysts issue optimistic recommendations when including it in their assessments. Regarding the variations in recommendations over time, it can be seen that analysts tend to be more pessimistic. These crucial findings underscore the urgent need for proactive and strategically tuned tax management to improve the accuracy of financial forecasting, emphasizing the importance of integrating deep tax considerations into financial and investment strategies. Contributing significantly to the existing literature, this work seeks to generate new perspectives for future research on effective tax risk management and its decisive influence on business strategies. In the end. The detailed analysis was able to demonstrate that tax litigation represents a crucial factor that must be considered in the assessment of risks and in the formulation of effective financial strategies, aiming to optimize financial performance and mitigate the associated risks, reinforcing the importance of an integrated and strategic approach in tax management
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Litigiosidade tributária , Erros de previsão , Acurácia do analista , Recomendações do analista , Mercado brasileiro , Tax Litigation , Prediction errors , Accuracy of the analyst , Analyst recommendations , Brazilian market