Mudanças climáticas e seus impactos no fluxo de sedimentos da bacia amazônica
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Data
2025-10-20
Autores
Föeger, Lizandra Broseghini
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
This study investigates the impacts of climate change on sediment fluxes in the Amazon Basin, the world's largest hydrographic basin and one of the planet's most important biomes, in light of the scarcity of studies that integrate the most recent climate projections with hydro-sedimentological models for the basin. For this purpose, the MGB-SED model was applied on a daily scale, calibrated and validated with observed hydrological and sediment data, and forced with CMIP6 climate projections from five models of the NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 ensemble, under two emission scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5), for the future period (2015 – 2100). The incorporation of seasonality as a central axis of analysis, distinguishing between dry and wet periods, allowed for the identification of interannual patterns of agreement and disagreement between streamflow and sediment discharge that might not be captured by conventional annual approaches. The results indicate a general trend of reduced streamflow, especially during the dry season and under the high-emission scenario SSP5-8.5, highlighting a greater vulnerability of water availability in the basin. In contrast, the analysis of solid discharge showed heterogeneous responses, with projected increases particularly during the wet season and in scenarios with higher radiative forcing. The coexistence of the trend of decreasing streamflow and increasing solid discharge in several sub-basins highlights the nonlinear and spatially variable nature of the hydro-sedimentological responses to climatic forcings. The study provided a calibrated and validated hydro-sedimentological model for the Amazon Basin, through which streamflow and sediment flux projections were quantified in future scenarios, offering unprecedented insights into the trends of erosion, transport, and sediment deposition throughout the end of the century. Such results can inform evidence-based decision-making, allowing for the identification of critical areas of potential increase or decrease in sediment load.
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Mudanças climáticas , Vazão , Descarga sólida em suspensão , Bacia Amazônica