Três anos de pandemia da COVID-19: análise da variação temporal no estado do Rio de Janeiro, região sudeste brasileira
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Data
2023-07-18
Autores
Santos, Gabriella Lima
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
Introduction: according to the course of the severity of the new coronavirus in different continents, the pandemic in the Americas region stood out with the number of cases and deaths. The southeastern region of Brazil was one of the most affected and the state of Rio de Janeiro showed significant values of epidemiological measures, in particular the mortality rate which is, the highest in Brazil. The Rio de Janeiro is considered a national metropolis and an important entry point for international travelers, therefore, air and road flows contributed to the insertion and spread of the virus in Rio de Janeiro. Objective: to analyze the temporal variations of lethality, mortality and incidence rates due to COVID-19 in the state of Rio de Janeiro during the period from January 2020 to December 2022. Methods: ecological study, with public access population-based time series provided by the Secretary of Health of the State of Rio de Janeiro. Information was collected on cases and deaths from COVID-19 from January 2020 to December 2022. Incidence and mortality rates, expressed per 100,000 inhabitants, and lethality, expressed as a percentage, were calculated. For trend analyses, time series construction rates were calculated using the generalized linear regression model by the Prais-Winsten method. The angular coefficient with its respective probability and the percentage variation of daily change were estimated. All statistical analyzes were performed using the STATA MP 17.0 statistical software. Results: in the analyzed period, the months of December 2020, March 2021 and January 2022, the highest percentage of confirmed cases was observed, respectively, with 21.24%, 15.72% and 56.51%. Regarding deaths, the highest percentage occurred in the months of May 2020 (23.92%), April 2021 (19.64%) and between January (28.20%) and February 2022 (28.62%). The fatality rate found was higher in the month of May 2020 (11.6%), however in 2022 in this same month, the lethality found was 0.21%, proving to be the lowest of the entire analyzed period. The month of April 2021 had the highest mortality rate with 45.14 deaths per 100,000 inhabitants. In January 2022, the highest incidence with 3,390.03 confirmed cases per 100,000 inhabitants. The mortality rate and incidence showed variation in the serial correlation between the analyzed years. Mortality in 2020 maintained a stationary tendency at 1.05% and in the following years followed the same behavior, with a decreasing trend of -0.82% and -0.52%. The incidence, on the other hand, showed a daily growth of 2.03% in the year 2020, in the other years it varied between decreasing and increasing, -0.56% and -0.77%, respectively. The fatality rate followed a stationary trend in the three pandemic years with -0.12%, -0.15% and 0.15% for each year, consecutively. Conclusion: the health indicators studied in the state of Rio de Janeiro have different epidemiological behaviors, as well as important serial correlation variations between the analyzed years. The incidence stood out in 2020 and mortality in the same period showed a stationary trend. In 2021, the epidemiological measures showed a similar behavior and in 2022, a change in the pattern was observed, with mortality trending downward and the incidence stationary. Lethality, in turn, presented a stationary behavior in the three pandemic years.
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COVID-19 , Mortalidade , Letalidade , Incidência , Tendência