A curva de Phillips no Brasil e a política de metas de inflação : uma análise da evolução do trade-off durante o período 1980-2010
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Data
2011-06-13
Autores
Nazareth, Mateus Alves
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
Faced with a nonconsensual discussion regarding the existence or not of a tradeoff between inflation and unemployment (Phillips curve), this dissertation examines the evolution of this relationship in the Brazilian economy during the period 1980-2010 using two different analysis: The first is considered a static analysis, performed with the use of a simple linear regression. The second is a dynamic analysis, where it is used a regression with time-varying coefficients, and the estimation of the coefficients is accomplished with the application of the Kalman filter. The econometric results show that the relationship between inflation and unemployment in fact changed over the period analyzed: The Phillips curve becomes horizontal after the Real Plan and is slightly positive after the Inflation Targeting Regime. Accordingly, this work is basically divided into two parts: The first consists of a brief review of the relationship between inflation and unemployment and the inflation targeting regime. The second part presents the econometric analysis, which describes the evolution of trade-off. Faced with the results, are presented their possible causes and is carried out a qualitative analysis of current monetary policy applied by the Central Bank of Brazil.
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Kalman filter , Time varying coefficients , Linear regression , Inflation targeting regime , Philips curve , Curva de Phillips , Regime de metas de inflação , Regressão linear , Coeficientes variando no tempo , Filtro de Kalman , Coeficientes variando no tempo