A evolução da Regra de Taylor no Brasil: comparação entre os mandatos presidenciais no Banco Central
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Data
2022-01-26
Autores
Lima, Augusto Cesar Klassen Amorim Alves de
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
In 1993, John B. Taylor proposed a rule (The Taylor rule) which was aimed at explaining the monetary authority’s reactions to inflation rate and output level changes, by means of adjustments of the basic interest rate. In addition to the adoption of a rule, which stimulates confidence by increasing transparency to monetary decisions, there existed an increase of the research associating flexibility - i.e. ability to keep inflation under control at reduced social costs - with both the monetary policy’s credibility and the authority’s reputation. This paper was aimed estimating rules that describe Brazil’s monetary policy's behavior over the period between January 2003 and July 2021, thereby including Henrique Meirelles (2003-2010), Alexandre Tombini (2011-2016), Ilan Goldfajn (2016-2019) and Roberto Campos Neto (2019-2021) mandates, in order to analyze the evolution of the Taylor's rule in Brazil and to compare its application over the presidential mandates covered by the sample. The Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) were used. The results suggest that the Meirelles and Goldfajn administrations were more conservative in controlling inflation than the Tombini and Campos Neto administrations.
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Política monetária , Regra de Taylor , Metas de inflação