Análise comparativa de modelos hidrológicos em função de suas estruturas e parametrização e de resultados de aplicações em bacias hidrográficas
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Data
2019-12-23
Autores
Delboni, Thais Covre
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
The selection of hydrological models for flow simulation in a watershed is a challenge and comparison between models and their performances can help researchers to choose the appropriate model for specific conditions. In this study, distributed hydrological models Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Modelo de Grandes Bacias (MGB) characteristics were theoretically analyzed with respect to hydrologic processes representations and complexities. Models performances were evaluated and compared considering applications in Itapemirim River basin flow simulations, This basin presents an approximately 6,000 km2 drainage area and is located in the south of Espírito Santo state, Brazil. The models performances analysis was made for seven rivers control sections, considering 1999 to 2013 daily flows records. Models parameters sensitivity analysis allowed the identification of the most influential parameters contributing to the models calibration. Both models were calibrated for a six years data period and then validated by using an independent six years data period. Simulated and observed daily flows were compared. Average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE and NSElog) and determination (R2) coefficients, considering the seven control stations located in the Itapemirim basin, for calibration and validation periods, estimated for MGB simulations were about ten percent higher than those estimated for SWAT simulations. Considering the classification criteria developed by Moriasi et al. (2015), these coefficient values indicate that the simulations performed with SWAT model can be classified as satisfactory and those performed with MGB as good. However, the percentage errors related mainly to maximum and minimum annual flows reproductions were high for many control sections. Thus, empirical criteria for model performance classification, such as the proposed by these authors, should be used with caution and considering modeling objectives. Differences in model performances can be mainly attributed to the two models flow generation and production mechanisms. The results do not allow concluding that either of the hydrological models is superior to the other for all sites or considering all model performance measures. There is no consensus in rain-flow modeling research on which model structure should be preferred, since factors such as model formulation, parameterization, and modeler ability have large influence on the simulations accuracy.
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Palavras-chave
SWAT , MGB , Modelo hidrológico , Comparação de modelos , Modelo distribuído , Hydrologic model , Model comparison , Distributed model.