Aplicação do método de Monte Carlo para análise de incerteza na simulação do comportamento dos compostos de nitrogênio em rios
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Data
2014-12-17
Autores
Silva, Tatiana Candeia da
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
Nitrogen is a component of major importance regarding generation and its own control of water pollution. At the same time it is an indispensable element for the production of the aquatic ecosystem, it can be the causative agent of several problems related to water quality. Nitrogen in water bodies is presented in many oxidation states and can be found in the forms of organic nitrogen, ammoniacal, nitrite and nitrate. The most important reactions are fixation, ammonification, assimilation, nitrification and denitrification. The research’s main goal is to conduct, with the use of the mathematical model of water quality Qual-UFMG and the Monte Carlo method, a computational simulation of the nitrogen compounds transformations in the last stretch of the Piracicaba River, which is an important affluent of the Doce River. The uncertainty analysis due to using the Monte Carlo method involved the random creation of entry data (hydrodynamic variables, water quality conditions and kinetic constant) with the assistance of regular and uniform distributions of probabilities. Results indicate that, for the variation coefficient values and the percentage of variation, initially assumed for the performance of this present study, the histograms of frequency of maximum values of the different nitrogen compounds concentration are similar when produced with the aid of the regular or uniform distributions in order to randomly create the kinetic constants, hydrodynamic variables and concentrations of nitrogen compounds. From all the variables simulated, the variation coefficient values and the variation percentage are not presented as relevant for Kso (sedimentation coefficient of the organic nitrogen), once the Kso values are usually small when compared to the other coefficient already simulated.
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Nitrogen , Piracicaba River , Qual-UFMG , Monte Carlo , Nitrogênio , Água - Qualidade - Modelos matemáticos , Método de Monte Carlo , Rio Piracicaba
Citação
SILVA, Tatiana Candeia da. Aplicação do método de Monte Carlo para análise de incerteza na simulação do comportamento dos compostos de nitrogênio em rios. 2014. 117 f. Dissertação (Mestrado Profissional em Engenharia e Desenvolvimento Sustentável) - Programa de Pós-Graduação em Engenharia e Desenvolvimento Sustentável, Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, Vitória, 2014.