Ensaios em Economia do Crime: Uma Abordagem Econométrica Espacial
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Data
2024-01-30
Autores
Montini, Felipe
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Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo
Resumo
This thesis is composed of three essays that aim to understand the main aspects of crime in Brazil in three forms. First, checking how it behaves in the territory, observing which places are most affected and what their trend is. Second, analyzing the effects of the factors that condition it and, mainly, the exogenous spatial effects, related to the conditions in neighboring municipalities. And, finally, evaluating the effectiveness of a public policy aimed at reducing violence. The first essay aimed to analyze the spatial patterns of violence, through an exploratory analysis of spatial data, and test the hypothesis of convergence of homicide rates, in Brazilian municipalities, for the period from 2005 to 2019, through β-convergence models, using panel data and considering spatial effects. The results showed that not only is the process of convergence in homicide rates occurring, but practically all municipalities in the country are close to their stationary states, with a certain individual equilibrium rate. The second essay aimed to analyze the conditions of crime in Brazilian municipalities, from 2005 to 2016, emphasizing the effects of exogenous spatial interactions, through the SLX, SDEM and SDM models. The results showed that spatially lagged explanatory variables are significant in explaining homicide rates. In general, crime was positively affected by the level of income and demographic density of the municipality itself and neighboring municipalities; and negatively due to economic development and the proportion of young men in the neighbors. Furthermore, the results showed the existence of heterogeneity regarding the responses to the determinants in the different regions. Therefore, regional characteristics must be taken into account when developing public policies, since the same policy, applied in two different regions, tends to produce different results. Finally, the third essay aimed to evaluate the impact of the Programa Estado Presente, implemented in 2011, in Espírito Santo, on homicide rates in the municipalities that received the treatment, so that reducing lethal violence was the main objective of the program. For this purpose, a difference-in-differences method was used based on the semiparametric estimator proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021). The analysis was carried out considering two groups, defined based on the year in which the municipalities were initially treated. The results showed a strong heterogeneity in the treatment effects in each of the groups. In the 2011 Group, formed by the largest and most violent municipalities in the state, a 38.1% reduction in homicide rates was estimated. In the 2013 Group, formed by municipalities in less violent regions, the program did not have a statistically significant effect. Considering the effect of the treatment in the 2011 Group, it was estimated that the program prevented around 428 homicides, on average, annually, totaling 1,713 lives saved during the period in which it was active. Therefore, the results indicated that the program was effective in reducing homicides in the state of Espírito Santo.
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Palavras-chave
Criminalidade , análise espacial , econometria espacial , hetorogeneidade regional , avaliação de impacto , políticas públicas