Doutorado em Economia

URI Permanente para esta coleção

http://repositorio.ufes.br/handle/10/17550

Nível: Doutorado
Ano de início: 2019
Conceito atual na CAPES: 4
Ato normativo: Homologado pelo CNE (Portaria MEC nº 486, de 14/05/2020). Publicação no DOU em 18/05/2020, seção 1, p. 93. Parecer nº 839/2019 CNE/CES
Periodicidade de seleção: Semestral
Área(s) de concentração: Teoria Econômica
Url do curso: https://economia.ufes.br/pt-br/pos-graduacao/PPGEco/detalhes-do-curso?id=1433

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Navegando Doutorado em Economia por Autor "Giuberti, Ana Carolina"

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    Ensaios em Economia do Crime: Uma Abordagem Econométrica Espacial
    (Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2024-01-30) Montini, Felipe; Becker, Kalinca Léia; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6896-9411; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9082069520269585; Monte, Edson Zambon; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6878-5428; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5543595580825181; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6867-7021; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5448798711984290; Giuberti, Ana Carolina; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6685-6272; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7213083068331720; Lirio, Viviani Silva; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6806-819X; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8215754365980649; Jorge, Marco Antonio; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7195-9364; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9491207553911468; Lira, Pablo Silva; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2643-5219; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1429716140765041
    This thesis is composed of three essays that aim to understand the main aspects of crime in Brazil in three forms. First, checking how it behaves in the territory, observing which places are most affected and what their trend is. Second, analyzing the effects of the factors that condition it and, mainly, the exogenous spatial effects, related to the conditions in neighboring municipalities. And, finally, evaluating the effectiveness of a public policy aimed at reducing violence. The first essay aimed to analyze the spatial patterns of violence, through an exploratory analysis of spatial data, and test the hypothesis of convergence of homicide rates, in Brazilian municipalities, for the period from 2005 to 2019, through β-convergence models, using panel data and considering spatial effects. The results showed that not only is the process of convergence in homicide rates occurring, but practically all municipalities in the country are close to their stationary states, with a certain individual equilibrium rate. The second essay aimed to analyze the conditions of crime in Brazilian municipalities, from 2005 to 2016, emphasizing the effects of exogenous spatial interactions, through the SLX, SDEM and SDM models. The results showed that spatially lagged explanatory variables are significant in explaining homicide rates. In general, crime was positively affected by the level of income and demographic density of the municipality itself and neighboring municipalities; and negatively due to economic development and the proportion of young men in the neighbors. Furthermore, the results showed the existence of heterogeneity regarding the responses to the determinants in the different regions. Therefore, regional characteristics must be taken into account when developing public policies, since the same policy, applied in two different regions, tends to produce different results. Finally, the third essay aimed to evaluate the impact of the Programa Estado Presente, implemented in 2011, in Espírito Santo, on homicide rates in the municipalities that received the treatment, so that reducing lethal violence was the main objective of the program. For this purpose, a difference-in-differences method was used based on the semiparametric estimator proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021). The analysis was carried out considering two groups, defined based on the year in which the municipalities were initially treated. The results showed a strong heterogeneity in the treatment effects in each of the groups. In the 2011 Group, formed by the largest and most violent municipalities in the state, a 38.1% reduction in homicide rates was estimated. In the 2013 Group, formed by municipalities in less violent regions, the program did not have a statistically significant effect. Considering the effect of the treatment in the 2011 Group, it was estimated that the program prevented around 428 homicides, on average, annually, totaling 1,713 lives saved during the period in which it was active. Therefore, the results indicated that the program was effective in reducing homicides in the state of Espírito Santo.
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    Três estudos sobre os efeitos do controle social dos gastos públicos na condição fiscal municipal
    (Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2023-10-09) Krakowiak, Sérgio; Seixas, Renato Nunes de Lima; https://orcid.org/0000000205105181; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1824359260532530; https://orcid.org/0009-0000-0695-4313; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5743237255500174; Giuberti, Ana Carolina; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7213083068331720; Oliveira, Giuliano Contento de; Sakurai, Sergio Naruhiko; Cunha, Marina Silva da
    Article 1 - This research examines the effect of social control over municipal Public Administration spending by social observatories. Ceteris paribus, the monitoring of public spending by social observatories should increase the likelihood of detecting inefficiencies, misappropriation of resources, and corruption, leading to a reduction in municipal expenses. Nevertheless, theory predicts circumstances that may nullify or even reverse these effects. In the international empirical literature, there is no consensus on the effectiveness of social control over public spending, and in Brazil, empirical literature on the subject is in its infancy. Thus, based on agency theory and the econometric approach of difference-in-differences, we test the hypotheses that in Brazil: (i) per capita expenses of municipal Public Administration tend to decrease when monitored by social observatories; (ii) observatory monitoring is especially effective in small municipalities with fewer than 50,000 inhabitants; (iii) the effectiveness of observatories varies between states; and (iv) observatories that operate in networks, such as those in the Observatório Social do Brasil (OSB) network, are more effective in controlling public spending than those that operate independently. The results suggest that Brazilian social observatories are highly effective, that at least partially this effectiveness increases in small municipalities, that the effectiveness of observatories in different states is indeed heterogeneous, and that OSB network observatories are not more effective than others. Article 2 - Education is one of the main targets of corruption in Brazilian municipalities. Failures in institutional mechanisms for controlling Public Administration allow municipal corruption to multiply, forcing organized civil society to mobilize. Since the mid-2000s, a strategy of monitoring the public sector by civil society, which uses social observatories to oversee the bidding processes and conduct of city halls and municipal secretariats, has been implemented in hundreds of municipalities. Despite this, there are doubts about the effectiveness of this form of social control, due to the scarcity of studies on its effects, especially in Brazilian municipal education, where there are no such researches. The international literature shows that illicit deviations and/or serious inefficiencies in the management of public education resources weaken the relationship between government spending and the population's access to educational services, so that statistically null coefficients or coefficients that are positive but close to zero for this relationship represent signs of corruption or serious inefficiencies. Based on this, this research evaluates the existence of signs of corruption/inefficiencies in the management of municipal education, analyzing whether the action of social observatories is capable of mitigating them. Using a methodological design that uses panel data and the generalized method of moments to estimate these coefficients in the pre- and post-intervention periods, comparing them to those of a control group selected by propensity score matching, we find evidence that suggests that social observatories are effective in fighting corruption, administrative inefficiencies and opportunistic behavior in the management of municipal education. Article 3 - This study examines the impact of social observatories on the fiscal condition of municipalities. In Brazil, one of the most decentralized countries in the world, municipal corruption is endemic, leading to grave fiscal issues. Social observatories, non-governmental organizations dedicated to enabling citizens to oversee local public administration, have arisen in response to this challenge. The paper employs the Firjan Index of Fiscal Management (IFGF) and its sub-indices as indicators of municipal fiscal health. The results, calculated using a methodology that melds matching techniques with difference-in-differences, suggest that the presence of social observatories considerably enhances the overall fiscal health of municipalities. This effect is manifested in a decline in the commitment of the municipal budget to personnel expenses in the second year after the observatories' introduction, and to capital expenditures in the first year. However, the initial improvements concerning capital expenditures are offset in the subsequent year, pointing to adaptive maneuvers by corrupt actors. The research underscores the effectiveness of social observatories as tools for societal control, while highlighting the ongoing need for initiatives to counteract the adaptive strategies of corruption.