Doutorado em Economia

URI Permanente para esta coleção

http://repositorio.ufes.br/handle/10/17550

Nível: Doutorado
Ano de início: 2019
Conceito atual na CAPES: 4
Ato normativo: Homologado pelo CNE (Portaria MEC nº 486, de 14/05/2020). Publicação no DOU em 18/05/2020, seção 1, p. 93. Parecer nº 839/2019 CNE/CES
Periodicidade de seleção: Semestral
Área(s) de concentração: Teoria Econômica
Url do curso: https://economia.ufes.br/pt-br/pos-graduacao/PPGEco/detalhes-do-curso?id=1433

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    Ensaios em Economia do Crime: Uma Abordagem Econométrica Espacial
    (Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2024-01-30) Montini, Felipe; Becker, Kalinca Léia; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6896-9411; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9082069520269585; Monte, Edson Zambon; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6878-5428; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5543595580825181; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6867-7021; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5448798711984290; Giuberti, Ana Carolina; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6685-6272; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7213083068331720; Lirio, Viviani Silva; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6806-819X; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8215754365980649; Jorge, Marco Antonio; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7195-9364; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9491207553911468; Lira, Pablo Silva; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2643-5219; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1429716140765041
    This thesis is composed of three essays that aim to understand the main aspects of crime in Brazil in three forms. First, checking how it behaves in the territory, observing which places are most affected and what their trend is. Second, analyzing the effects of the factors that condition it and, mainly, the exogenous spatial effects, related to the conditions in neighboring municipalities. And, finally, evaluating the effectiveness of a public policy aimed at reducing violence. The first essay aimed to analyze the spatial patterns of violence, through an exploratory analysis of spatial data, and test the hypothesis of convergence of homicide rates, in Brazilian municipalities, for the period from 2005 to 2019, through β-convergence models, using panel data and considering spatial effects. The results showed that not only is the process of convergence in homicide rates occurring, but practically all municipalities in the country are close to their stationary states, with a certain individual equilibrium rate. The second essay aimed to analyze the conditions of crime in Brazilian municipalities, from 2005 to 2016, emphasizing the effects of exogenous spatial interactions, through the SLX, SDEM and SDM models. The results showed that spatially lagged explanatory variables are significant in explaining homicide rates. In general, crime was positively affected by the level of income and demographic density of the municipality itself and neighboring municipalities; and negatively due to economic development and the proportion of young men in the neighbors. Furthermore, the results showed the existence of heterogeneity regarding the responses to the determinants in the different regions. Therefore, regional characteristics must be taken into account when developing public policies, since the same policy, applied in two different regions, tends to produce different results. Finally, the third essay aimed to evaluate the impact of the Programa Estado Presente, implemented in 2011, in Espírito Santo, on homicide rates in the municipalities that received the treatment, so that reducing lethal violence was the main objective of the program. For this purpose, a difference-in-differences method was used based on the semiparametric estimator proposed by Callaway and Sant’Anna (2021). The analysis was carried out considering two groups, defined based on the year in which the municipalities were initially treated. The results showed a strong heterogeneity in the treatment effects in each of the groups. In the 2011 Group, formed by the largest and most violent municipalities in the state, a 38.1% reduction in homicide rates was estimated. In the 2013 Group, formed by municipalities in less violent regions, the program did not have a statistically significant effect. Considering the effect of the treatment in the 2011 Group, it was estimated that the program prevented around 428 homicides, on average, annually, totaling 1,713 lives saved during the period in which it was active. Therefore, the results indicated that the program was effective in reducing homicides in the state of Espírito Santo.
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    Probabilidade De Inserção No Mercado De Trabalho Informal — Análise Da Região Metropolitana Da Grande Vitória Sob A Ótica Da Escolaridade
    (Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2024-04-22) Rocha, Antonio Ricardo Freislebem Da; Moreira, Ricardo Ramalhete; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1905-4872; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3263921271806291; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5725-0364; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5259513596650690; Monte, Edson Zambon; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6878-5428; http://lattes.cnpq.br/5543595580825181; Grassi, Robson Antonio ; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3735-3427; http://lattes.cnpq.br/1705867851062589; Cerqueira, Daniel Ricardo De Castro; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6130-2753; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7665386759198695; Lira, Pablo Silva; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2643-5219; http://lattes.cnpq.br/ 1429716140765041
    This research analyzed the influence of years of study and the completion of school cycles on the probability of labor force participation and informal employment in the Metropolitan Region of Greater Vitória/Espírito Santo, between 2012 and 2019. To correct for selection bias, the Heckman procedure was used, and to mitigate the endogeneity of the education variable, caused by educational choice and individuals' ability, the "Stratum" variable was used. The Bootstrap technique was also used to verify the robustness of the results across different models. The results indicated that the increase in the probability of labor market participation, with the completion of educational cycles of basic education, and the higher probability of participation in the formal sector, with the completion of basic and higher education, are factors that tend to increase the labor income of individuals during their working life cycle. It also became evident the importance of some variables that were used as controls, such as the union variable, which showed the highest magnitude among the variables used and is closely related to the analyzed region. Lastly, the results suggest that labor market informality functioned as a cushion after 2016, as the unfavorable economic performance after that year increased the chances of individuals participating in the labor market as informal workers. Another highlight was the certificate inflation, resulting from an increased supply without a corresponding increase in the quality of education or alignment with the demands of the labor market, which could result in a saturation of the labor market with certificate-holding professionals and have important implications for the productivity and development of the region.