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- ItemA influência das configurações urbanas na qualidade do ar(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2020-02-21) Silva, Fabiana Trindade da; Junior, Neyval Costa Reis; https://orcid.org/0000000261594063; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4944106074149720; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; Santos, Jane Meri; https://orcid.org/0000000339332849; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0120226021957540; Goulart, Elisa Valentim; https://orcid.org/0000000200510778; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0014236670973457; Lopes, Luis Manuel Bragança de Miranda; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; Pires, Miguel José das NevesUrban morphology is a fundamental aspect of understanding the pollutant dispersion in the urban environment. In addition, block typology is a key element in modeling scenarios closer to reality. The urban planning usually defines urban indexes to conduct
- ItemAcoplamento de modelagem do escoamento de mesoescala e microescala meteorológica no interior do dossel urbano(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2020-02-19) Maciel, Felipe Simoes; Junior, Neyval Costa Reis; https://orcid.org/0000000261594063; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4944106074149720; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; Almeida, Murilo Pereira de; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; Santos, Jane Meri; https://orcid.org/0000000339332849; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0120226021957540The present work investigates the impact of the use of mesoscale meteorological model data coupled as boundary conditions for microscale CFD (Computational Fluid Dynamics) models for a real urban area. Numerical simulations were performed using CFD consid
- ItemACOPLAMENTO DE MODELOS DE MICRO E MESO ESCALAS PARA DETERMINAÇÃO DO ESCOAMENTO E DA DISPERSÃO DE POLUENTES EM AMBIENTE URBANO(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2020-01-10) Menegatti, Igor Richa; Junior, Neyval Costa Reis; https://orcid.org/0000000261594063; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4944106074149720; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; Santos, Jane Meri; https://orcid.org/0000000339332849; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0120226021957540; Goulart, Elisa Valentim; https://orcid.org/0000000200510778; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0014236670973457; Borrego, Carlos; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/Currently, the use of photochemical mesoscale models has become significantly important for air quality management in urban regions due to its great potential to produce information regarding air pollutants and meteorology. Mesoscale models, such as WRF-C
- ItemAnálise comparativa de modelos hidrológicos em função de suas estruturas e parametrização e de resultados de aplicações em bacias hidrográficas(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2019-12-23) Delboni, Thais Covre; Mendonca, Antonio Sergio Ferreira; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4273-0266; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9841888526169409; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8479-6741; http://lattes.cnpq.br/3521580851954596; Buarque, Diogo Costa; https://orcid.org/000000032698520X; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8616432679482558; Reis, Jose Antonio Tosta dos; https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9916-1469; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7828468159099998; Caiado, Marco Aurelio Costa; https://orcid.org/0000000226583916; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7949976625744034The selection of hydrological models for flow simulation in a watershed is a challenge and comparison between models and their performances can help researchers to choose the appropriate model for specific conditions. In this study, distributed hydrological models Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Modelo de Grandes Bacias (MGB) characteristics were theoretically analyzed with respect to hydrologic processes representations and complexities. Models performances were evaluated and compared considering applications in Itapemirim River basin flow simulations, This basin presents an approximately 6,000 km2 drainage area and is located in the south of Espírito Santo state, Brazil. The models performances analysis was made for seven rivers control sections, considering 1999 to 2013 daily flows records. Models parameters sensitivity analysis allowed the identification of the most influential parameters contributing to the models calibration. Both models were calibrated for a six years data period and then validated by using an independent six years data period. Simulated and observed daily flows were compared. Average Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE and NSElog) and determination (R2) coefficients, considering the seven control stations located in the Itapemirim basin, for calibration and validation periods, estimated for MGB simulations were about ten percent higher than those estimated for SWAT simulations. Considering the classification criteria developed by Moriasi et al. (2015), these coefficient values indicate that the simulations performed with SWAT model can be classified as satisfactory and those performed with MGB as good. However, the percentage errors related mainly to maximum and minimum annual flows reproductions were high for many control sections. Thus, empirical criteria for model performance classification, such as the proposed by these authors, should be used with caution and considering modeling objectives. Differences in model performances can be mainly attributed to the two models flow generation and production mechanisms. The results do not allow concluding that either of the hydrological models is superior to the other for all sites or considering all model performance measures. There is no consensus in rain-flow modeling research on which model structure should be preferred, since factors such as model formulation, parameterization, and modeler ability have large influence on the simulations accuracy.
- ItemANÁLISE DA APLICAÇÃO DAS MODELAGENS EUPS E SWAT NA IDENTIFICAÇÃO DE ÁREAS PRIORITÁRIAS PARA INTERVENÇÕES CONSERVACIONISTAS DO SOLO EM BACIAS HIDROGRÁFICAS(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2020-02-27) Marchesi, Anthony Fabriz; Mendonca, Antonio Sergio Ferreira; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9841888526169409; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; Reis, Jose Antonio Tosta dos; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7828468159099998; Caiado, Marco Aurelio Costa; https://orcid.org/0000000226583916; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7949976625744034Soil loss, caused by water erosion, generates financial and social impacts through soil productive capacity reduction, besides impacts to the environment by excessive sediments and nutrients inputs. The objective of this study is to analyze the USLE equat
- ItemAnálise da estratificação no canal de acesso ao Porto de Vitória e na Baía de Vitória-ES(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2020-05-27) Lobo, Gabriela Machado; Chacaltana, Julio Tomas Aquije; https://orcid.org/0000000324886232; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9108224414966705; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; Gallo, Marcos Nicolas; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; Reis, Jose Antonio Tosta dos; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/7828468159099998Mathematical modeling is used in several engineering subjects. Particularly in Environmental Engineering, considering bodies of water with a surface, this modeling is used to understand the estuary s hydrodynamics. The present work aims to investigate the
- ItemAnálise da influência da descarga do rio Santa Maria da Vitória sobre a propagação da onda de maré e da hidrodinâmica tridimensional da Baía de Vitória(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2013-12-16) Nascimento, Thiago Freitas do; Aquije Chacaltana, Julio Tomás; Daniel, Rigo; Harari, JosephThe tidal wave is damped in estuarine regions and progressively distorted by frictional forces in the bottom, by river discharge, by narrowing/abrupt enlargements in the channels and by the presence of vegetation areas. In this paper the study is conducted to understand the induced tidal wave along the Porto de Vitória and check the river discharge influence of the Rio Santa Maria da Vitória in hydrodynamics. The hydrodynamic model used in this work is MOHID in three-dimensional barotropic mode and deployed throughout the estuarine system of the Ilha de Vitória. And the simulation period corresponds to the year 2009. As the tidal boundary condition, the model was forced by a set of harmonics, which were extracted from a long series of tidal data by Pacmaré program. And the data of river discharge of Santa Maria da Vitoria were obtained from the National Water Agency (ANA) website. As a boundary condition in the bottom was used length values equivalent roughness, which were extracted from the maps of study by Paiva (2008). While the mangrove region the value of 3 meters was used, as the work of Maciel (2004) and Nascimento et al. (2011). A rectangular mesh horizontally at regular intervals of approximately 56x56 meters was used, while for the vertical discretization a mesh sigma type was used with 10 layers. The results founded for the tide waves in the Baía de Vitória was observed that the tidal wave to propagate upstream of the estuary, the M2 and S2 components has a different behavior, while the first is amplified the second is reduced. Moreover, the region of Baía de Vitória is where the shallow water harmonic suffers more influence. During periods of high river discharge the tidal wave tends to be blocked, resulting in a number of harmonics and amplitude lower compared with periods of low river discharge, corroborating the results of Goring (1984), Godin (1985); Nicoliti (2007); Nicoliti et al. (2009). It was ascertained that at least 11 harmonic constituents are common to the period of low river discharge, are absent in the period of high river discharge analyzed. For the period low river discharge, we realized the presence of multiple vortices when analyzing residual streams and these vortices no was noted in the period of high river discharge. Thus, it was found that during periods of high river discharge the water quality of the estuarine system of Ilha de Vitória may suffer a substantial improvement. However, when we analyzed the hydrodynamics of the Baía de Vitória, it was found that there is a phase difference between the northern and southern parts, and the highest velocities are found in the southern part of the bay, which is aligned with the work done by Garção (2007) and Rigo (2004). However, during high river discharge events the northern part of the bay runs like a river, flowing in one direction throughout the tidal cycle, and it is in this region where the highest velocities are found. Finally, a reversal of dominance was observed in the region, in the periods of spring tide the estuary is ebb dominant and in the periods of quadrature the estuary is flood dominant, these result also was found by Rigo (2004). Furthermore, it was noted that during low tide the highest velocities are found in the subsurface in central region of Baía da Vitória.
- ItemAnálise da influência da especificação do uso e ocupação do solo e do uso da técnica de assimilação de dados meteorológicos na performance do modelo WRF(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2017-04-06) Aylas, Georgynio Yossimar Rosales; Albuquerque, Taciana Toledo de Almeida; Reis Junior, Neyval Costa; Santos, Jane Meri; Moreira, Davidson Martins; Pimentel, Luiz Claudio GomesAir quality models require accurate meteorological elds and geographic data to make the correctly modeling of chemical transport. For this purpose, the Metropolitan Region of Greater Victoria (RMGV) uses the numerical mesoscale model WRF. The physical and biological property of the land surface has been progressively a ected as a consequence of the change in land use. This is mainly due to urbanization and farming and forest practices. However, the problem about the use of parameters such as soil coverage provided by the USGS is that they are available with ultimate update date in 1993. In addition, there is the high computational cost about the assimilating of real data (observational meteorological data) to obtain more improve on the forecasts. For this purpose this study has the main goal evaluate the input datas regarding to land use and cover, together whit speci cation the meteorological assimilation data (pontual observations) to evaluate the performance of the WRF model for the Região Metropolitana da Grande Vitória (RMGV). As part of the work of generating accurate spatial data, satellite image analysis was performed. These provide excellent data quality, with enough information to generate the desired geographic data. Therefore, we have worked speci cally for a small 120km x 120km area that covers the RMGV whole and is centered at the Airport Station. On the other hand, to make the data treatment with the objective of implementing the new geographic database for the RMGV, several steps were followed. These was grouped on the preprocessing of images for the land use and cover with the 24 categories of land use suggested by the USGS and the equivalent to the brazilian sistem for the RMGV area. However, for soil granulometry and texture it had no greater problem than accurate the existing information, as well as to Topography. As well as, for the four-dimensional data assimilation (FDDA), the Newtonian relaxation or nudging (continuous data assimilation method that adjusts the model's dynamic variables gradually for observations by adding one or more prognostic equations) were generated les containing the reports of the surface meteorological data of the Aeroporto station. As a consequence, the modeling performance of the direction and speed of the wind and temperature. In consequence, the modeling performance of the speed and direction of the wind and temperature, using to modeling with updated geographical database has a slight improve compared with using USGS data source. Although, not every month they hit the ags for the suggested indicators for all seasons. However, to evaluate the modeling performance of wind direction and speed and temperature for all seasons, making use of the updated geographic data with the in uence of nudging a ecting the domain d01 improvement in every month. Thus, when the in uence of nudging for domain d02 is used, it improves modeling even more than when was used together domains d01 and d02 is in uenced.
- ItemAnálise da influência da precipitação pluviométrica e do uso do solo sobre a qualidade da água em microbacias hidrográficas no nordeste paraense: Amazônia Oriental(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2011-08-08) Veronez, Brunella Pianna; Mendonça, Antônio Sérgio Ferreira; Rigo, Daniel; Oliveira, Francisco de AssisWhen forest is removed, giving way to agricultural production systems, pastures and urbanization, not just the landscape is drastically changed but watercourses quality is modified. The multiple uses of water and human activities in a watershed may cause significant changes in water quality. This study aims to acquire better knowledge about the influence of rainfall and soil use on water quality of watersheds located in the Amazon biome. The field survey was developed in Praquiquara watershed, Castanhal city, Pará state, Brazil. GIS was used for the delineation and mapping of land use in Praquiquara watershed and 8 (eight) sub-basins corresponding to the water quality monitoring stations. Water quality monitoring occurred in 4 (four) field surveys, distributed during rainy and dry seasons. It was concluded that the use and occupation of land in the watershed have a great influence on several water quality parameters. Parameters showing the largest changes were: turbidity, total suspended solids, total solids, DO, BOD, Iron and thermotolerant coliforms. The parameters that showed violations of legal standards for water quality were: pH, Dissolved Oxygen, BOD and thermotolerant coliforms. The results of water monitoring also showed great influence of rainfall on water quality parameters. BOD, nitrate, and iron are among the parameters that have presented concentration reduction during the rainy season. Total Suspended Solids, Dissolved Oxygen, Ammonia Nitrogen, Ammonia and nitrite are among the parameters for which concentration increased during the rainy season
- ItemAnálise da influência do escoamento no interior de uma câmara de fluxo dinâmica na taxa de emissão de sulfeto de hidrogênio(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2016-03-30) Andreão, Willian Lemker; Santos, Jane Meri; Reis Junior, Neyval Costa; Vieira, Rodrigo SilveiraThe wastewater treatment process lead to formation of odorous compounds, as hydrogen sulphide (H2S), which can cause nuisance and disturbance to health of nearby residents. The dynamic flux chamber (or flux hood) is widely used to estimate the emission of odorous gases from quiescent liquid surfaces, presented in wastewater treatment plants. The geometry of the flux hood must promote a complete mixing of the volatilized gas within the hood to the emission measured be independent of the point sampling. An auxiliary device, as a small fan, it is commonly used for this purpose. This study investigated the influence of the flow inside the chamber on the transport of H2S and its emission rate. Mathematical modeling of these phenomena was performed through the numerical solution of the transport equations considering the turbulent flow using ANSYS-CFX 14.5 code. The results show that a flux hood with eight air inlets promote a concentration distribution more homogeneous, although the friction velocity at interface (0.007 m s-1 ) is not sufficient to promote an appropriate sweeping on interface, where it is found high values of concentration. In standard configuration (US EPA model), with four inlets, clean air jet can reaches the sampling probe, affecting in the concentration values measured. If micro fans are used, turbulence created within the hood and friction velocity are significantly higher. Concentration quickly reaches stationary state within the hood (1 to 2 min) and the final emission rate is on average 25.3% higher with the use of micro fans. If the purpose of using the flux hood is to represent environmental conditions that would be found in the field, it is recommended to use micro fans.
- ItemAnálise da influência do Rio Santa Maria da Vitória na Baía de Vitória, através da modelagem computacional: uma contribuição ao processo de enquadramento(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2007-04-01) Saldanha, Jeanne Cristine Schmidt; Rigo, Daniel; Azevedo, José Paulo; Mendonça, Antônio Sérgio FerreiraCoasts and firths are environments in which human impacts have caused a variety of changes. Among the main impact is the increasing use of water resources, which has caused several quality and quantity of water conflicts. In order for the control and monitoring actions to be effectively adopted, aiming at lessening the damage caused by these practices, one should understand the movement pattern of the relevant bodies of water as well as their correlation with the water quality. This is the purpose of this paper. To do so, a computer model of the region comprising the final section of the Santa Maria da Vitória River and Vitória bay was implemented. It was named SisBAHIA. After the model was calibration and verification, the hydrodynamic characteristics of the region were associated with aspects related to water quality, by performing component transport simulations. These simulations allowed the analyses of the influence of river output on the saline intrusion behavior; correlation of river and tide conditions with concentrations in the Vitória bay firth area, considering a conservative component; and evaluation of the amount of water in the region considering a non-conservative component, by using several river and tide output scenarios. It is intended that the obtained results contribute to the process of classification of the Vitória Bay. Results should also provide data to allow access to information, in order to help make decisions and manage the studied region coast. This aims at improving the quality of life of the people using the bay water
- ItemAnálise da influência dos fenômenos el niño e la niña na ocorrência de eventos climáticos de seca e enchente(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2024-07-18) Bragança, Cassiano Gustavo Juan Franco Neves; Mendonça, Antônio Sérgio Ferreira; https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4273-0266; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; Reis, José Antônio Tosta dos; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; Santos, Alexandre Rosa dos; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/; Pavani, Elaine Cristina Rossi; https://orcid.org/; http://lattes.cnpq.br/The effects of climate change are increasingly evident, with the incidence of drought and flood events being noticeable throughout the national territory and in the rest of the world resulting from changes in atmospheric systems. Among the factors that can influence hydrological and meteorological parameters in certain regions, it is worth highlighting the occurrence of the El Niño and La Niña phenomena, recurrently correlated with drought and flood events. Therefore, the main objective of the present work is to analyze the influence of El Niño and La Niña on drought and flood events recorded in Brazil. Historical series of precipitation and flow recorded between the years 1940 and 2018 were analyzed, covering stations installed and in operation in Espírito Santo, Minas Gerais, Rio Grande do Sul, Bahia and Ceará. Then, the data were classified according to the incidence and intensity of the phenomena. The average annual precipitation totals from the historical series and during the El Niño and La Niña years were spatialized using the Inverse Distance Weighted (IDW) interpolation method in the QGIS 3.28.8 computational application. Furthermore, the averages obtained with data referring to the period of water crisis that occurred in Espírito Santo between the years 2014 and 2016 were analyzed and compared, discussing the effects of El Niño and La Niña on the records of stations located in Espírito Santo Santo and verifying the variations in the Oceanic Niño Index – ONI in different periods. After preparing the results, historical precipitation and flow data were acquired from other periods within the interval between 1940 and 2018, considering the need to contemplate the greater number of El Niño and La Niña phenomena in other regions of the national territory. Data obtained from stations in Espírito Santo showed a reduction in average precipitation in years of strong El Niño in most stations in the state, with the inverse relationship occurring in periods of strong La Ninã, increasing precipitation and flow values. Interpolation using the IDW method showed a reduction in precipitation in the North of Espírito Santo in El Niño years and an increase in rainfall in the South region. Stations located in Rio Grande do Sul recorded an increase in average precipitation and flow during El Niño years. El Niño and the reduction in La Niña years. The stations of Minas Gerais, Bahia and Ceará presented variations in the analyzes considering the years of El Niño and La Niña; however, the values obtained were not very significant in indicating the influence of the phenomena, and it is prudent to consider the interference of other factors that may affect the hydrological variables analyzed. When analyzing the period of water crisis in Espírito Santo, it was found that the greater intensity of El Niño may be related to drought events in Espírito Santo, presenting a reduction in the average rainfall records in more intense El Niño years according to with ONI.
- ItemAnálise das deformações viscosas e da segregação de fases em floculadores tubulares helicoidais e suas relações com a razão de curvatura(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2015-12-02) Sartori, Maurício; Teixeira, Edmilson Costa; Pires, Eduardo Cleto; Rauen, William Bonino; Aquije Chacaltana, Julio Tomás; Rigo, DanielHelical tubular flocculators (FTHs) when compared with the currently employed hydraulic flocculato s in water and wastewater treatment plants have demonstrated high efficiency in the floc formation with low hydraulic retention time (Tdh) and high power dissipation levels, challenging the current flocculation paradigm (high Tdh and low energy dissipation levels). However, the mechanisms that enable these flocculators operating satisfactorily in these operational conditions have not yet been elucidated. It is known that the fluid viscous deformations present a great influence on the collision opportunity and, consequently, on the flocculation. Another factor that also has relevance in the flocculation is the particles’ concentration which, in the current models, it is assumed uniform throughout the reactor. In this context, aiming at enhance the understanding of the flocculation in those flocculators, this work presents an evaluation of the influence of the FTHs’ curvature ratio (d/D, where d is the tube diameter and D is the coil diameter) on the fluid elements strain rate, which has been assumed to be the main collision mechanism between particles. It is also shown that d/D influences the phase segregation, a characteristic of two-phase flows in curved pipes. For this purpose, we evaluated 5 FTHs configurations with curvature ratio of 0.0091, 0.0182, 0.0364, 0.0729 and 0.1458, with the support of computational fluid dynamic simulations (monophasic and biphasic), with and without considering the gravitational field, by adopting horizontal and vertical coil axes, respectively. The results demonstrate the importance of taking into account the linear strains, neglected in some collision models, besides the direct relationship of the curvature ratio with both angular and linear strains, and, consequently, with the shear strain rate. Regarding the phases segregation, there was an inverse relationship with the curvature ratio. However, this segregation is influenced by the reactor's position relative to the gravitational field. In horizontal coil axis reactors, at each turn, there is a cycle of segregation and mixing. In vertical axis FTHs, there is a significant increase of particles’ concentration in the reactor region close to the inner wall, due to the combined effect of the secondary flow drag and gravitational attraction.
- ItemAnálise de aspectos qualitativos e sociodemográficos relacionados ao incômodo causado por gases odorantes em ambiente urbano industrializado(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2023-05-02) Cavalcante, Franciele Ribeiro; Santos, Jane Meri; https://orcid.org/0000000339332849; http://lattes.cnpq.br/0120226021957540; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4617943384573000; Reis Junior, Neyval Costa; https://orcid.org/0000000261594063; http://lattes.cnpq.br/4944106074149720; Leon, Antonio Carlos Monteiro Ponce de; http://lattes.cnpq.br/8754508925214231; Reisen, Valderio Anselmo; https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8313-7648; http://lattes.cnpq.br/9401938646002189; Melo, Milena Machado de; Furieri, Bruno; https://orcid.org/0000000297360250; http://lattes.cnpq.br/6585455298349085This study aims to identify qualitative factors that interfere with the perception and annoyance caused by odorous in an industrialized urban environment. Surveys were carried out in two periods that differ in the seasonality of meteorological conditions in the study region. Analyzes were performed using the chi-square test for homogeneity, the chi-square test for independence, and binary multivariate logistic regression. The results show that respondents are concerned about air pollution. Respondents perceive different forms of air pollution: pollution due to amount of dust/dust, loss of visibility, and presence of odors. Among respondents who were annoyed due to odors, there was a higher prevalence of being extremely annoyed. The primary sources of odors identified by respondents were the steelmaking and sewage treatment plants. The main impact caused on the respondents' daily lives was to close the windows to avoid the odor. The chi-square test for homogeneity identified significant differences in the responses of the two surveys for variables related to the respondents' profile, perception of air pollution, and perception of odor pollution. The following variables associated with increased chances of feeling highly annoyed with odors were: perception of other forms of air pollution, such as dust and loss of visibility, gender, frequency of perception of male odor, and occurrence history of respiratory problems. This study contributes by identifying qualitative factors that interfere with the reactions of individuals exposed to odorous pollution and allow interested parties (companies, environmental agencies) to plan and implement policies aimed at these particularities to reduce the effects on health and quality of life.
- ItemAnálise de componentes principais e a modelagem linear generalizada: uma associação entre o número de atendimentos hospitalares por causas respiratórias e a qualidade do ar, na Região da Grande Vitória, ES(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2013-04-30) Souza, Juliana Bottoni de; Santos, Jane Meri; Reisen, Valdério Anselmo; Leon, Antonio Carlos Monteiro Ponce de; Reis Júnior, Neyval CostaThis dissertation uses two statisticals tools, Principal Component Analisys (ACP) and Generalized Additive Model (GAM), jointly, to estimate the effect of the association between atmospheric exposure of PM10, SO2, NO2, O3 and CO and the number of admissions due respiratory diseases in children less than 6 years in the Regi˜ao da Grande Vit´oria, Brazil.Usually the atmospheric pollutants are considered the explanatory covariables in MAG, but since they have an autocorrelation structure, they must be used with caution. The PCA technique provides a new set of orthogonal variables, these variables are linear combinations of environmental variables.Therefore, We use this approach in MAG, hereafter denoted by GAM-PCA. However, the principal components obtained through the matrix of variance / covariance applied to processes indexed by time also exhibit the properties of temporal correlation. A countermeasure to attenuate the temporal correlation of the components is use the filtering method to transform the data in an atmospheric white noise process. The residual matrix is used to obtain these components and applied to the model MAG - method here called VAR-GAM-PCA. The empirical results show that this model removes the autocorrelations of the main components and indicates significant estimates of relative risk (RR) for each pollutant. The results confirm the hypotheses established, the main components have selected correlation and the autocorrelation lags. To adjust the GAM-PCA model, an ARMA(p,q) model was used in the residual matrix since that structure carried autocorrelation from the original data. The VAR model-MAG-ACP, besides producing more significant in RR estimates, generated best fit residuals. Compared to the usual modeling MAG, the two strands proposals presented better results, both in estimating the RR and the quality of the fit.
- ItemAnálise de componentes principais em séries temporais multivariadas com heteroscedasticidade condicional e outliers : uma aplicação para a poluição do ar, na Região da Grande Vitória, Espírito Santo, Brasil(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2016-04-01) Monte, Edson Zambon; Reisen, Valdério Anselmo; Bondon, Pascal; Ispány, Márton; Munaro, Celso José; Albuquerque, Taciana Toledo de Almeida; Reis Junior, Neyval CostaIssues relating to air quality have become increasingly important, since many health problems come from air pollution. In addition, air pollution contributes to the degradation of the environment, contributing to the greenhouse effect. Thus, several studies adopting technical statistics have been conducted in order to contribute in the making of public and private actors with regard to combating pollution, prevention of high concentrations and formulation of laws for this purpose. The classical principal component analysis (PCA) is a statistical methodologies adopted. The PCA is used for dimensional reduction, cluster analysis, regression analysis, among others. However, among the studies that have adopted the classical PCA, a common feature is to neglect the conditional heteroscedasticity and/or the presence of additive outliers, which may lead to spurious results (misleading), since the estimated autocovariance matrix may be biased (estimated incorrectly). It is possible to note that the time series related to air pollution tend to present conditional heteroscedasticity and additive outliers. Then, the first paper of this thesis proposed to apply a multivariate filter VARFIMA-GARCH to the original data and use the classical PCA on residuals of the VARFIMA-GARCH model. Besides the volatility, this model was used to filter the temporal correlation and the long memory behavior. The application of the PCA on the residuals of the VARFIMA-GARCH model was more consistent with the environmental characteristics of the Greater Victoria Region (GVR), Esp´ırito Santo, Brazil, than the application using the original data The second paper, that is the core of this thesis, the technique of principal volatility components (PVC), proposed by Hu e Tsay (2014), was extended for a robust approach (RPVC), in order to capture the volatility present in the multivariate time processes, but considering the effects of additive outliers on conditional covariance, since these outliers may mask (“hide”) the conditional heteroscedasticity or even produce spurious volatility. The proposed RPVC improved the predictions of PM10 exceedance days in the Laranjeiras station, in the GVR.
- ItemAnálise de componentes principais robusta em dados de poluição do ar: aplicação à otimização de uma rede de monitoramento(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2014-10-30) Cotta, Higor Henrique Aranda; Reisen, Valdério Anselmo; Reis Junior, Neyval Costa; Ispany, MartonStudies of data from air pollution originating from a network of air monitoring involve a large number of variables and observations. From the standpoint of statistical techniques, it is possible to analyze separately each variable of interest. However, this type of analysis can not contemplate the relationship dynamics between these variables. Because of this, it is necessary to use statistical techniques to handle, measure and analyze these data generated jointly. This branch of statistics known as Multivariate Statistics. One important multivariate technique in the area of air pollution is the Principal Component Analysis (PCA), which builds linear combinations of variables to explain the variance-covariance structure of the original data. Air pollution in the Principal Component Analysis is used for: creating indexes of air quality, identi cation of pollution sources, management of air quality monitoring network, preprocessor variables for generalized additive models, besides other applications. In this work PCA is used to study the management and scaling of the Network for Monitoring Air Quality in the Greater Vitoria Region. This work deals with the use of Principal Component Analysis (PCA) in time series with additive outliers. The PCA is one of the most important multivariate techniques which are linear combinations constructed to explain the variance-covariance structure of the original data. Although PCA assumes that the data are serially independent, this assumption is not found in practice situation in time series, e.g. Air Pollution data. PCs calculated from time series observations maintains their orthogonality property, but the components are found to be auto and cross-correlated, which depends on the correlation structure of the original series. These properties and their impact in the use of PCA are one of main objective of this work. Another contribution is related to the study of PCA time series under the presence of additive outliers by proposing a Robust PCA (RPCA) method. It is well known that additive outliers in time series destroys the correlation structure of the data. Since the PCs are computed by using the covariance matrix, the outliers also a ect the properties of PCs. Therefore the Robust PCA should be used in this context. The Robust PCA method proposed here is justi ed empirical and theoretically, and a real data set based on Air Pollution time serie is used to show the usefulness of the Robust PCA method in a real application.
- ItemAnálise de desempenho do satélite TRMM na estimativa de precipitação sobre a região hidrográfica do rio Itapemirim(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2017-12-20) Almeida, Karinnie Nascimento de; Reis, José Antônio Tosta dos; Mendonça, Antônio Sérgio Ferreira; Facco, Alexandro GomesThere are several obstacles in conducting high quality hydrological studies. There is a low density of pluviometric stations, faults in historical series, difficulties without access to the site, there are no conditions to install the monitoring of availability and unavailability of the operator. These factors hamper analysis of precipitation regimes, hampering their study and maintenance of hydrological modeling in several places around the world. In this context, the use of remote sensing precipitation estimates represents an alternative for the appropriation of precipitation, especially in river basins that have low densities of rain gauges or pluviographs equiment. The present work evaluates the precipitation to annual totals, monthly totals and long term averages in the Itapemirim river basin, as well as to evaluate the occurrence of rainfall in satellite pixels and rainfall stations closest to the pixel, from The satellite was developed by a partnership between the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the Japanese Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA). Historical series corresponding to 14 rain gauges stations arranged throughout the area of the studied basin were studied. In addition, data from the TRMM satellite were analyzed for a spatial mesh of 25 km for the same study area, considering the period between the years 1998 and 2015. Two statistical analyzes were carried out, following the recommendations of the International Precipitation Working Group (IPWG), statistics of quantitative analysis and analysis of occurrence. he quantitative analysis represents the amount of rain precipitated over the area of extension, which indicated that the use of the data from the TRMM satellite presented as an efficient alternative for the appropriation of precipitated annual and monthly totals, in addition to the long term averages precipitation for the study area. On the other hand, the analysis of occurrence, pixel to pixel analysis, that studies the occurrence of a rainy event in the station and in the pixel, indicated that the satellite presented significant values, being that the TRMM satellite has capacity in about 50% of the cases to indicate correctly a rainy day, or drought day and total efficiency of over 70%.
- ItemAnálise de estratégias de resposta a derramamento de óleo pesado no litoral do Espírito Santo utilizando modelagem computacional(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2006-10-31) Ferreira, José Paulo; Martins, Renato Parkinson; Rigo, Daniel; Aquije Chacaltana, Júlio Tomás; Lima, José Antônio MoreiraThe response to heavy oil spill in Brazil needs to be deeply discussed; in order to consider certain particularities not considered by the legislation. The sizing of the structure to be used does not take into account the oil characteristics, like density or viscosity, as well as, it treats the same way any volume of discharge bigger than 200m3, considering it simply as ‘great discharge’. The main objective of this study is to discuss the use of containment recovery and artificial dispersion, as response strategies to offshore heavy oil spills, besides the expected contribution of each response scenario as a function of the required mobilization effort. An oil spill computational model (OILMAP) is used to simulate a critical accidental heavy oil spill scenario in the south coast of Espirito Santo, the no-response scenario, which results in a big volume of oil reaching the, under a severe environmental conditions and in the case of a free slick. After that, the structure and the response times foreseen in the legislation for the containment and recovery of oil are tested, as the reference scenario. Besides a set of ten alternative response scenarios, with different response times and response structure, a series of containment and recovery strategies together with combined dispersion (mechanical and chemical) and also a response scenario exclusively composed by combined dispersion of the oil hypothetically spilled are simulated. The results obtained point toward a limitation of the response strategies in the case of a large spill under critical environmental conditions, once this work reveals that in optimum response scenario, a significant amount (~25%) of the volume initially spilled (15.000m3 ) continues reaching a large shoreline extent (~50km), in a relatively short period of time (~05days)
- ItemAnálise de localização de emissários de efluentes com uso de modelagem de qualidade de água e otimização: estudo de caso(Universidade Federal do Espírito Santo, 2018-09-24) Santos, Alinie Rossi dos; Mendonça, Antônio Sérgio Ferreira; Reis, José Antônio Tosta dos; Andrade, Larice NogueiraThe present study addresses the choice of more suitable sites for effluent discharge in river basin watercourses. This study aims to analyze the influence of effluent emissaries location on the water resources quality, considering violations of standards, and efficiencies required for treatment systems within a river basin. Pardo river basin, in Espirito Santo, was chosen as the study area, parameters considered were Dissolved Oxygen and Biochemical Oxygen Demand. Among the study tools, it was used a water quality model, implemented in Matlab, which reproduces mathematical formulations and conceptual and computational structures of QUALUFMG model, and the Genetic Algorithm, as optimization technique. In optimization method application, two objective functions were considered, minimizing the sum of efficiencies and minimizing inequity among treatment systems. For the location analysis, a new effluent emissary, with two possible discharge flows, had its location changed along the main river. Effluent location influence analysis was carried out by verifying the variability: sums and the number of stretches presenting violations to environmental standards, efficiencies required to treat the new effluent and the set of effluents existing in the basin, considering different positions to the new effluent discharge point. Results confirm the great importance of effluent discharge sites' adequate location for compliance with water quality standards for receiving watercourses and required treatment efficiencies. Simulations and optimizations such as those performed in the present study may help in choosing points at which effluents discharge have lower impacts on the quality of receiving water bodies and require smaller treatment efficiencies in river basins.